Summary of china feed raw materials market on July 4, 2022
Market Commentary - Focus
Corn prices fluctuated lower. Inventories in the north and south ports continued to accumulate, the futures market fell sharply, and the market mentality was weak. Feed companies entered a wait-and-see state, and the delivery of goods was limited to just-needed replenishment, and the liquidity of grain sources was poor. The listing of new wheat continues to increase, traders' willingness to ship corn increases, the demand for new purchases on the demand side increases, and the demand for breeding continues to grow. It is expected that during the first ten days of July, the price of corn will show weakness and decline for a short time. Most of the time in July, the price of corn remained stable and slightly up and down.
Benchmark futures closed down about 4.3%, with soybean futures falling below $14 a bushel for the first time since mid-January, as weak U.S. soybean export sales exacerbated the bearish sentiment in the soybean market and fears of a recession prompted speculative funds to withdraw from the commodity market. After the U.S. soybean slump, traders’ purchasing rhythm has slowed down. In addition, the peak of imported soybean arrivals in Hong Kong has gradually passed. Under the condition of high soybean crushing volume of oil mills, soybean stocks are expected to continue to fall, and soybean meal stocks will continue to remain high due to limited increase in demand at the breeding end. Under the pressure of lower cost support and futures selling pressure, soybean meal may continue to follow the downward adjustment of U.S. soybean futures prices, and continue to pay attention to the weather in the Midwest producing areas of the United States and changes in domestic soybean meal supply and demand.
On July 4, the domestic market futures generally fell at the opening, with rapeseed meal falling by more than 2% and soybean meal by more than 1%. The weather in Canada's producing areas has improved, and the global economic recession fears have intensified, restricting the increase in rapeseed prices. Inactive domestic downstream deliveries, recovery of rapeseed meal stocks, and the weekly auction of imported soybeans all put pressure on rapeseed meal prices. However, aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the demand for rapeseed meal is expected to increase, which also supports the price of rapeseed meal. As of yesterday, the price of ordinary rapeseed meal in coastal areas was 3540-3740 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the price of rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate.
Cottonseed held steady. At present, the pressure of destocking of oil mills has increased, so soybean meal is under pressure, and prices may find support downwards, which has a positive impact on cotton meal. However, at present, the price of cottonseed is strong and the cost side boosts the price of cottonseed meal; at the same time, the operating rate of oil and cotton factories is insufficient, and the supply of cottonseed meal is limited, so that there is still strong support for cottonseed meal. Short-term cottonseed meal is volatile, and the price fluctuation range is limited.
DDGS is stable. The spot price of DDGS remained at a high level, and the start of summer maintenance and supply tightening boosted the setback. The pace of downstream terminal inquiries slowed down, and market transactions were relatively weak. However, the cost of raw grains remained stable, and the pressure of production losses continued for alcohol enterprises. Strong, it is expected that the downside of DDGS price will be limited in the short term.
Today's domestic wheat prices are stable and slightly weak. Entering July, the corn that is in the green and yellow does not rise but falls. The decline in corn prices also puts pressure on the wheat market. After all, after the corn price falls, the advantages of wheat feed substitution are further reduced. In addition, the early-maturing corn in the south will be launched in mid-to-late August, and the autumn corn will enter the concentrated harvest period after mid-September. At that time, the price of corn may fall further, and the auction of temporary storage of old wheat will resume after the National Day, if the reserve price is not adjusted. , the third-class 2350 yuan/ton has a price advantage compared to new wheat, so it should not be overly optimistic about the wheat market in the later stage. Affected by the decline in corn, the bottom center of wheat has moved down. In addition, the demand for flour consumption is in the seasonal off-season, and the start-up of enterprises is relatively low. At a low level, manufacturers purchased part of the inventory in the early stage, and the sentiment of price pressure has increased, and the recent decline in wheat prices in the international market has weakened the bullish expectations of domestic market players to a certain extent.
On July 4, the CBOT soybean oil market fell sharply again last Friday, technically hitting a new low for adjustment and returning to the previous falling channel. The Malaysian palm oil market closed down more than 4 percent on Friday, as recession fears and the prospect of rising supplies weighed on sentiment. Malaysia's June exports fell 7.4%-13.4% from the previous month as exports to Indonesia and the European Union slowed. Production increased and exports fell, and the market expects that Malaysia's palm oil inventories will continue to rise at the end of June. Domestic oil futures opened low and went down, and Masukura fell sharply, returning to the previous downward channel. Today, the price of a soybean in major areas is 10300-10400, and the price of 24-degree palm oil is 13000-13200 yuan, focusing on Indonesia's export progress and changes in domestic oil stocks.
Steam fish meal:
The fishmeal market is still supported in the short term. In the external market, due to the continuous small fishing bans and the arrival of the Fishermen's Day holiday, the fishing volume has decreased. The local fishmeal manufacturers in Peru have a strong attitude, and the CNF reference is 1880 US dollars / ton. The specific fishing data is that a 15-day trial fishing was launched on May 4. According to statistics, from the trial fishing to the 30th, the fishing totaled 1,894,747 tons, and the remaining quota was 897,253 tons, which was 67.86% of the quota. In terms of domestic fishmeal, the gradual reduction of fishmeal stocks in ports and the reduction in fishing volume have significantly boosted the confidence of Chinese fishmeal traders. The domestic price of Peruvian super steam-grade fishmeal is around 12,900-13,200 yuan / ton, and the specific transaction price shall prevail. In the short term, fishmeal will wait and see, and we will pay attention to whether the ban on fishing in the large-scale sea area will suspend the fishing in the central and northern regions, and we will pay more attention to the impact of typhoon "Siamba" on aquaculture.
The downstream demand is weak. From January to February 2022, China imported a total of 70,300 tons of whey, a year-on-year decrease of 44.3%. Recently, the arrival of whey powder in Hong Kong has been delayed, and the market is stable and slightly stronger.
Lysine is 10.5-11 yuan/kg. In May 2022, the export volume of lysine and lysine salts and esters in my country was 99,860 tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.12% and a year-on-year increase of 113.56%. The price of raw materials is high, and exports are well supported. However, new production capacity is released and domestic demand is not good. Recently, some manufacturers have lowered the quotation of lysine by 98% to 10.2 yuan/kg, and the market is running weak. Yipin plans to overhaul Ningxia and Inner Mongolia bases for 10-15 days from July to August. From June 14th, the production line of Chengfu lysine will be replaced and overhauled, which will reduce production by one-third.
Methionine is 19.4-20.2 yuan/kg, and the rising cost of raw materials is supported by the bottom. Recently, the purchase and sales are not good, the factory quotation is weak, and the market is weak. On June 9, the market said that the Xinhecheng methionine plant planned to stop production for 6-8 weeks in early August. In May, my country's import volume of solid eggs was 14,300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The cumulative import volume from January to May was 68,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 20%.
The VA market is 130-140 yuan/kg, and the European market price this week is 51-55 euros/kg. Recently, the market has corrected and adjusted, and it has bottomed out. On May 18, the market said that the Xinhecheng VA plant was scheduled to stop production for 10 weeks in mid-June. On June 15, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical's VA and VE production lines planned to be overhauled for 8-10 weeks in mid-July, and the market paid more attention.
The VE market is 85-88 yuan/kg, and the European market price this week is 9.9-10.2 euros/kg. On May 24, the market said that the Xinhecheng Shandong VE plant plans to stop production for 8-9 weeks in mid-June. On June 6, the market said that Beisha Pharmaceutical's VE production line was scheduled to be shut down for 7-8 weeks in mid-June. On June 14, the quotation of Xinhecheng VE was raised to 90 yuan/kg. Zhejiang Medicine VE plans to start maintenance for 8-10 weeks in mid-July, and the market is paying more attention.
Outer ternary wool pig:
The price of pigs continued to fluctuate and strengthened over the weekend, and the price of foreign ternary pigs has exceeded 21 yuan/kg. Due to the rapid increase in pig prices, the low acceptance of the downstream industry, the reduction of slaughtering companies, and the increased willingness to lower prices, pig prices adjusted before the weekend. However, the bullish willingness of pig farmers is still high, and they are reluctant to sell, market transactions are reduced, and the difficulty of purchasing slaughtering companies has increased. At present, the rate and speed of the increase are seriously out of the structure of supply and demand, and the tendency to overdraw the market interests in the later stage is obvious. We believe that in July and August, there is a risk of a correction in pig prices, and the probability of reversing previous gains is significantly increasing. However, since the large pigs sold for slaughter generally show a downward trend month by month, the price center of gravity will continue to move upward in general.
Today's egg prices rose steadily. In the current high temperature and high humidity days, the egg production rate of laying hens decreases, and the overall supply pressure is not large. However, the price of eggs continues to be weak, the profit of the farm has been compressed, the superimposed feed cost is high, and the farmers' support is obvious, but the overall demand is still weak, and the dealers are cautious in buying goods. , household demand has not been opened and other issues, it is expected that the price of eggs may still fluctuate slightly in the short term.
Today, the price of phasing out laying chickens is running smoothly. Although the current supply of Amoy Chicken has increased slightly, the overall supply is still low. The demand is relatively flat, and downstream slaughtering companies are not very motivated to purchase. It is expected that the price of Amoy Chicken will be stable in the short term.
White Feather Chicken:
Today, the price of white-feather broiler chickens fluctuated strongly, and the quotations in most areas were stable. At present, the stock of feather chickens is low and the success rate of breeding is low. Slaughter companies suffer serious losses. The scarcity of chicken sources has led to slaughterhouses actively collecting chickens, but the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of feather chickens may continue to fluctuate slightly in the short term.
White Feather Broiler:
The price of white-feathered broiler chicks continued to fall today. The price of feed is running at a high level, and the influence of high temperature weather is superimposed, and the difficulty of breeding increases. The uncertainty of future prices has led to a low mood among farmers to replenish the pens. The price of chicks is chaotic, manufacturers report high and open low, and the price of chicks varies greatly between large and small factories. It is expected that the price of chicks may fluctuate weakly in the short term.
Remarks: The cut-off time for quotations of various varieties in the daily market summary is 11:30. The difference in the statistical time may cause a slight difference in the price of the day.