Global meat prices hit record highs in 2022! China's pork production accounts for nearly half of the world!

The report shows that in 2022, global meat production is still expanding, and it is estimated that the annual meat production will reach 360 million tons, an increase of 1.2% over 2021 .

"In 2022, global meat production is expected to reach 360 million tons, an increase of 1.2% over 2021. At the same time, the international meat price index will reach a record high in June 2022. " Recently, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations released the "Meat Market Assessment Report, Trends and Outlook 2022", the report stated that global meat import demand has been sluggish in recent months .

Global meat production expands, but trade falls

The report shows that in 2022, global meat production is still expanding, and it is estimated that the annual meat production will reach 360 million tons, an increase of 1.2% over 2021. Most of the growth is forecast to come from Asia, with pork production rising in China, while beef and poultry are also growing in South America, meat production in other regions is relatively stable, and meat production in Europe is declining .

At the same time, total global meat trade is in decline , with the report showing that the total global meat trade is expected to reach 41.6 million tons in 2022, down 0.8% from 2021 . Among them, China's meat imports are expected to drop by 20% year-on-year . This is related to a substantial increase in domestic supplies, especially pork. The report also predicts that in the coming months, imports are expected to expand along with domestic prices .

The FAO Meat Price Index has risen sharply since October 2020, reaching an all-time high in June 2022 . The report believes that, on the one hand, this is related to the tight supply of almost all meat in the major supplying countries. At the same time, it is also related to factors such as the global economic downturn, the high cost of food imports, the downturn in the catering industry, and the increase in domestic production in major producing countries. .

At the same time, in 2022, the global meat production system is affected by the decline in production margins. The report notes that as prices for energy, animal feed and fertilizers rose, farmers' input costs rose sharply, outpacing price increases . Animal diseases continue to affect meat production in most major producing countries and also cause trade hindrances. Social distancing requirements related to the COVID-19 outbreak have been significantly relaxed, but the impact has not yet fully subsided. Unfavorable weather has also had a negative impact on meat production, especially the continuous La Niña weather phenomenon, which has caused some producers to slaughter livestock earlier.

Meat price index hits record high

Under the influence of multiple factors, international meat prices reached a record high in June. Except for August to December 2021, international meat prices have risen sharply since October 2020, and the FAO Meat Price Index reached an all-time high in June 2022, mainly due to the tight supply of almost all meat in major supplying countries. Meanwhile, global demand for meat imports has been subdued in recent months due to a sluggish global economy , high food import bills , a slump in the catering industry and rising domestic production in major producing countries .

Among specific meats, beef, the most expensive, has risen almost without interruptionsince October 2020 and reached an all-time high in March 2022 .

In terms of poultry meat , international poultry meat prices have risen since November 2020 and reached an all-time high in July 2022 due to factors such as widespread outbreaks of avian influenza , rising feed costs , labor shortages , and persistent supply chain bottlenecks , "reflecting global The phenomenon of tight supply." The report said.

The rise in pork prices was mainly caused by the reduction of production in pork exporting countries and the tight export supply , especially the tight export supply of the EU and the United States, which had a greater impact.

Pork, China's production accounts for nearly half of the world

Pork is the main species in human meat consumption, and the report shows that in 2022, global pork production is expected to be 124.6 million tons, an increase of 1.8% compared to 2021 . The increase in production is mainly due to the recovery of China's hog production capacity in the first half of 2022 and the significant increase in hog slaughter. China's pork production accounts for about 46% of global pork production .

Although domestic prices have continued to rise in recent months, pork production has declined in the second half of the year due to various unfavorable factors. At the same time, the African swine fever epidemic in Vietnam, Myanmar, Russia and other countries has been basically brought under control, and the output is expected to increase, which will affect domestic prices to a certain extent.

Currently, African swine fever is still affecting pork production in many countries, including the European Union, Thailand and the Philippines. Publicly available information shows that pork production in the EU is expected to decrease by around 5% . Thailand 's pork production is expected to drop by more than 30% .

The report predicts that in 2022, the total global pork exports are expected to reach 11.3 million tons, down 11.3% from the previous year . Among the major importers, China's pork imports are expected to drop by almost 45%, totaling about 2.7 million tonnes, or 24% of global trade . In 2022, countries such as the United States, South Korea, Mexico, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the Philippines are expected to increase pork imports. Growing pork consumption is driving increased pork imports in the United States and Mexico. As of September, the imports of Japan and South Korea in the first half of this year increased by 9% and 30.5% respectively year-on-year, and the imports for the whole year are expected to remain stable.

On the export side, China's pork imports are expected to decrease, which may lead to a reduction in exports from the four largest pork exporting countries, the European Union, the United States, Canada and Brazil.

Poultry, slowest growth to 2022

In 2022, global poultry meat production is projected at 138.8 million tonnes, a slight increase of 0.6% from 2021, the slowest growth rate on record.

High feed and energy prices, labor shortages and widespread outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in several major production areas, including Europe and North America, have led to tight global supplies, the report said. Furthermore, new highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in Latin America and the Caribbean may further affect poultry meat production prospects in the coming months. In Brazil, poultry meat production growth is expected to be the slowest in the past three years. Despite strong import demand, higher slaughter weights and domestic consumption of poultry meat remains strong, Brazil's overall meat demand has been affected by declining purchasing power.

Still, production is expected to increase in countries such as the United States, Turkey, Russia, Mexico and Brazil. In Mexico, as demand remains strong, the poultry sector has increased its share, accounting for almost 50% of total meat production, and Mexican poultry production is expected to grow steadily year-on-year.

In terms of exports, the report predicts that Brazil, China and Turkey will see the most significant growth in poultry exports in 2022 . China's poultry meat exports are expected to increase by 22% , the report believes that this reflects the increase in pork supply, but also means that consumption may shift more to pork.

Beef and lamb, demand down but trade expected to grow

Global beef production is projected at 73.9 million tonnes in 2022, up 1.4% from the previous year . Production is expected to increase in Brazil, China, India, and Argentina, while production in Colombia, the European Union, and New Zealand is expected to decrease, while production in the United States is expected to be roughly unchanged from the previous year.

Global sheep meat production is forecast to reach 16.5 million tonnes, up 0.9% from 2021 . The report noted that the increase was mainly due to projected increases in sheep meat production in Turkey, China, the United Kingdom and Australia, but declines in Ethiopia and New Zealand.

On the export side, global beef exports are projected to grow by 5.2%, reaching 12.7 million tonnes in 2022 . The report pointed out that the main reason is that Brazil's export supply will increase significantly in 2022, as well as the export volume of countries such as India, the United States, Mexico, Argentina and the European Union. Total global lamb exports are forecast to increase by 1.2% compared to 2021, totaling 1.1 million tonnes. Export growth was mainly driven by higher exports from Australia and the United Kingdom.

In terms of beef imports, China and Egypt are projected to increase beef imports , compared to Chile, Russia, Mexico, Japan and Canada, which are projected to decrease due to lower consumer demand or higher domestic supplies. Among the mutton imports, EU mutton imports are expected to increase. The report pointed out that due to the imbalance between supply and demand within the EU, EU mutton imports increased by 26% year-on-year in the first nine months of this year, mainly from the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Australia.