Global feed grain market: Black Sea exports are expected to recover, feed grain market falls

Foreign media July 24 news: Global feed grain  prices continued to decline in the week ended July 22, 2022, mainly due to the expected recovery of agricultural exports from Black Sea ports, improved rain prospects in the US corn belt, and weak US corn export sales , speculative funds continued to sell off.

December 2022 corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at about $5.6425 per bush on Friday, down 6.5% from a week ago. The spot offer for US Gulf No. 2 yellow corn was $6.6575 a bushel, down 9.9 percent from a week ago. November 2022 corn futures on the EURONEXT exchange settled at around €302/tonne, down 1.1% from a week ago. The FOB offer price of Argentine corn in Shanghe is $263/ton, down 4% from a week ago. September 2022 corn futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at around 2,577 yuan/ton on Friday, down 4.4% from a week ago. The U.S. dollar index closed at 106.621 on Friday, down 1.2 percent from a week earlier. International crude oil futures rose strongly on Friday. Among them, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) September contract of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) closed at $94.70 per barrel, up 0.14% from a week ago, and also in the past three weeks. first rise.
Five months after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, on July 22, Russian Defense Minister Shou Igu, Ukraine's Infrastructure Minister Kubrakov, Turkish President Erdogan and UN Secretary-General Guterres Istanbul signed a written agreement to To ensure the operation of the Black Sea Grain Export Corridor, the Quartet will set up a control center in Istanbul, composed of UN, Turkish, Russian and Ukrainian officials, to manage and coordinate the export of Ukrainian grains, as well as Russian grains and fertilizers through Black Sea ports, the agreement is valid for 120 days , can be renewed. The ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Pivdenny are all covered by the agreement. Ukraine is responsible for escorting ships out of its waters where the mines are located; Turkish and U.N. officials, at Russia’s request, will monitor that cargo ships heading to Ukraine are not smuggling weapons. Ukraine is a major corn exporter in the world. If exports from Black Sea ports resume, it could help improve global supplies.
A day after the agreement was signed, Turkish Defense Minister Hurus Akar said on July 23 that representatives of Russia and Ukraine, as well as the United Nations, have now started working with Turkey at the joint coordination center. But just a day after the deal was signed, the Ukrainian port of Odessa, a major Black Sea export hub, was hit by missiles. Ukrainian officials blamed Russia for the attack, saying the port was hit by at least four cruise missiles. Ukraine claims two of the missiles were intercepted and the granary was not affected. However, the Turkish defense minister said that Russia had informed him that Russia had nothing to do with the attack.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that the corn good-to-excellent rate remained steady at 64 percent for the second week in a row as of July 17, compared with 65 percent a year earlier. The growth of corn is slightly behind normal, the silking rate is 37%, 15% last week, 52% in the same period last year, and the five-year average is 48%. The situation in the Midwest is still very divided, with more rain in the east and temperatures 1 to 3 degrees Fahrenheit lower than normal, but the drought has intensified in the west, and this week has been affected by a heat wave from Minnesota to Missouri. Temperatures are higher than normal, with short-term drought continuing in the southern half of Minnesota, expanding moderate drought in the center, intensifying drought in Missouri, and expanding severe drought in western Kentucky. Analysts expect next Monday's crop progress report to show a 1-3 point reduction in corn ratings of 61 to 63 percent, compared with 64 percent a year earlier and the five-year average of 65 percent. The forecast is for some scattered showers in the Midwest this weekend, with another front of cold air bringing more showers by the middle of next week.
The International Grains Council (IGC) monthly report shows that the forecast for global corn production in 2022/23 is lowered by 1 million tons to 1.189 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%. It was 1.7 million tons lower at 76.5 million tons. The IGC this month lowered global corn consumption for 2022/23 to 1.202 billion tons, down 2 million tons from the previous month. Ending stocks were unchanged at 271 million tons.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report showed net U.S. corn sales for the 2021/22 season of 33,900 tons for the week ended July 14, 2022, down 43% from the previous week and 82% below the four-week average. Net sales in 2022/23 were 570,200 tonnes, compared to 348,200 tonnes a week earlier. Total U.S. corn sales so far in 2021/22 (including both shipped and unloaded sales) are 60.45 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%; total U.S. corn sales in 2022/23 are 7 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1 %.
Brazil's second crop of corn is more than half harvested, and the market supply has improved. The 2021/22 second-crop corn harvest in Brazil reached 53 percent as of July 14, up 9 percent from a week earlier, up from 32 percent a year earlier and the five-year average, according to consultancy Homestead Farmers (PAN) 45%. However, considering the recent sharp drop in corn prices, farmers are not very motivated to harvest and sell. Farmers have chosen to slow down their field work to reduce the moisture content of their corn crops.
As of July 8, Brazilian farmers had sold 43.4 percent of second-crop corn, up 4.8 percent from a month earlier, down from 65.4 percent a year earlier, and the historical average of 58.7 percent, consultancy Datagro said. The newly harvested second-crop corn faces storage problems due to slow sales of soybeans in 2021/22, which has left many granaries full. In Mato Grosso, the rapid harvest of second-crop corn has made storage problems even more acute, resulting in a large amount of newly harvested corn that can only be stored in the open. Open-stacked corn also maintains quality if done right. But if done incorrectly, the corn can lose some weight from overdrying and can be damaged by insects.
China's corn imports in June 2022 were 2.21 million tonnes, up from 2.08 million tonnes in May and 38.2% lower than the same period last year, data from China's General Administration of Customs showed. Imports from January to June were 13.59 million tons, down 11.1% year-on-year. Imports of sorghum in June were 930,000 tons, down from 1.67 million tons in May, down 14.9% year-on-year; imports from January to June were 6.02 million tons, up 25.7% year-on-year.