Alltech Agri-Food Outlook 2022 Releases Global Feed Survey Data and Future Trends

Alltech recently released the Alltech Agri-Food Outlook 2022, which highlights globalfeed productionsurvey data. The global COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on the agri-food sector, exacerbating supply chain challenges but also accelerating the application of new technologies and environmental sustainability practices.

Global feed production in 2021 is estimated at 1,235.5 million tonnes, up 2.3%

Data for the 11th Alltech AnnualFeed Survey Reportcomes from more than 140 countries and more than 28,000 feed mills. Despite a challenging year, global feed production increased by 2.3% over the past year, with production estimated at 1,235.5 million tonnes in 2021, compared to 1,207.9 million tonnes in 2020.

Regional Results for Global Feed Production

Asia-Pacific had the highest growth rate at 5.7% and is also home to several of the top ten feed producers, including China, India and Japan.

North America grew steadily by 1.9 percent last year, and the U.S. remains the world's second-largest feed producer after China.

Latin America recorded modest growth of 0.5%, with Brazil remaining the leader in feed production in the region and third globally.

Affected by African swine fever and high raw material costs, European feed production fell by 1.2%, coupled with low prices of end products, decline in ruminant feed production, and government regulation related to COVID-19.

Africa's feed production rose 2.4%, despite challenges faced by high raw material prices, foot-and-mouth disease and geopolitical tensions that have impacted exports of animal-based foods and caused shortages in some regions.

Top 10 Feed Producers in the World

The top 10 feed producing countries in the world produce 799.1 million tonnes of feed, and together these countries produce 65% of the world’s feed, and they can be considered indicators of agricultural trends. In addition, feed production in these countries increased by a combined 4.4%, compared with an overall global growth rate of 2.3%.

China remains the largest feed producer with the largest growth since 2020. Production in many countries exceeded expectations, mainly due to recovery from Covid-19 shutdowns.

The top 10 feed producers in 2021 are China (261.424 million tons), the United States (231.538 million tons), Brazil (80.094 million tons), India (44.059 million tons), Mexico (38.857 million tons), Spain ( 35.580 million tons), Russia (33.000 million tons), Turkey (25.300 million tons), Japan (24.797 million tons) and Germany (24.506 million tons).

Key Observations

In terms of tonnage, the country with the largest increase in feed production was China, which increased by 8.9% to 261.424 million tons. A key trend driving this growth is the continued consolidation and modernization of the country's feed industry. Pig farms and feed production in cooperation with professional feed mills. As a result, commercial feed tonnage has increased, especially driven by the growth and continued modernization of the swine industry.

Feed production in about half of the countries surveyed met local expectations, while about 25% fell below feed production due to continued restaurant closures, high raw material prices and/or African Swine Fever (ASF). expected. The remaining 25% of countries outperformed expectations, largely due to recoveries from Covid-19 lockdowns, including reopening restaurants and increased exports.

Over the past year, environmental concerns have received intense attention as governments around the world reaffirmed their commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In Europe and Asia, government policy has been the main driver in most markets, while in the Americas, the main driver has been consumers and private business. In some markets, the focus is on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while in others the focus is more on anticipated nitrogen regulations.

Significant Breed Data

The hog industry saw a more than 6% increase in feed tonnage as it rebounded from African Swine Fever (ASF). The global aquaculture industry continued to grow steadily, with a global growth of 3.7%. However, the pet industry experienced the biggest growth, with an impressive 8.2% increase in feed production.

Livestock pig industry

Swine feed production rose sharply by 6.6%, mainly due to the recovery from African swine fever in the Asia-Pacific region, especially Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and China. However, Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam continue to be affected by the disease. In Europe, countries where African swine fever is not or no longer a problem are still suffering from a pork glut due to reduced demand from China.

Dairy cow

Feed for dairy cattle edged up 1.9 percent. The Asia-Pacific region saw the largest increase, mainly due to growth in India. As Covid-19 lockdowns ease around the world, the reopening of the hospitality industry and in-person classroom education have helped boost overall milk consumption. In Australia and New Zealand, dairy cattle feed tonnage decreased by 6.7% and 2.5% respectively.

Beef cattle

Global beef feed production decreased by 1.9%. The industry continues to be challenged by greenhouse gas regulations and perceptions of environmental and health impacts. The European market is particularly focused on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in an effort to align with the 26th UN Climate Change Conference, the EU Green Deal and the European Feed Producers Association Feed Sustainability Charter 2030. The U.S. experienced an increase in beef cattle and heifers, as well as record beef export demand, due to the 2020 carryover. Argentina’s beef cattle production has plummeted due to lower exports, and high inflation and a depreciating local currency are also affecting Argentines’ purchasing power, although export regulations are being loosened, which could affect Argentina’s 2022 outlook.

Laying hens

In the field of poultry, the tonnage of feed for laying hens decreased slightly by 1.4%. The laying hen business has been facing challenges in many countries due to high raw material costs coupled with flat/low retail egg prices. Concerns about animal welfare are also a factor, as cage-free and free-range production is on the rise in many countries. In Europe, the most significant declines were seen in Norway, Russia, Ukraine and Poland. Freight volumes in Asia Pacific also fell, while layer feed in Australia rose 4%.

Broiler

Global broiler feed production increased by 2.3%. Factors boosting the broiler industry include increased demand for easy-to-cook proteins as restaurants close during Covid-19, and as the price of other meat proteins increases, chicken is a more affordable protein option. China and India saw the largest increases in the Asia-Pacific region. In Latin America, Peru, Brazil, Paraguay and Mexico contributed substantial growth of 5% to the region.

Aquaculture

Aquaculture continued to grow in many markets, with an increase of 3.7%. Recirculating aquaculture systems (RAS) are becoming more common and consumer demand for fish is rising. Markets facing African swine fever challenges saw additional growth due to reduced pork supplies. India's aquaculture feed tonnage increased significantly, reaching 9%; in addition, Indonesia accounted for 10% of the growth in the Asia-Pacific region. In Latin America, Chile, Brazil, Honduras and Ecuador contributed 5.6% to the region's growth.

Pet

Pet feed production saw the highest growth of any industry with an 8.2% increase. This significant increase is largely due to the increase in the number of pets during the COVID-19 pandemic. While some regions were flat, no global region reported a decline.